Nightingale Ice Cream:
Mind the Gap
📝 Overview
This document provides a data-driven analysis focused on identifying, quantifying, and diagnosing gaps in product distribution. The analysis utilizes five key visuals in a sequential, diagnostic framework.
Data Context and Scope The analysis relies on two primary sources: weekly sales (demand) data from SPINS (1/19/2025 to 10/5/2025) and aggregated order (supply) data from KeHe’s Ellettsville distribution center (1/1/2025 - 11/5/2025).
Due to the slight mismatch in date ranges and aggregation levels between the data sources, this analysis is primarily focused on the Distribution Gap (the difference between maximum proven distribution and current sales) as the most reliable performance metric.
📦 Fill Rate Performance: The Supply Chain Diagnosis (Kehe data)
Goal: Understand distributor reliability to identify the root cause of lost store distribution.
This analysis is segmented by Area (use the tabs to navigate) and sorted by Fill Rate to surface the worst offenders first.
| Area | Item | NumOfStores | Shipped | Ordered | FillRate |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KROGER ATLANTA | 10.4 OZ ICE CRM SNDWCH STRWBRY SC (860006870447) | 167 | 12,432 | 12,432 | 100.0% |
| KROGER ATLANTA | 10.4 OZ ICE CREAM SWCH CK MNSTR (860006870423) | 176 | 12,607 | 12,852 | 98.1% |
| KROGER ATLANTA | 10.8 OZ ICE CRM SNDWCH CHOC BLCKT (860006870454) | 176 | 8,666 | 8,869 | 97.7% |
| KROGER ATLANTA | 10.5 OZ SANDWHICHES IC BANA PDNG (850037507283) | 176 | 16,639 | 17,255 | 96.4% |
| KROGER ATLANTA | 10.1 OZ SANDWICHES IC MCHA BRWN (850037507290) | 139 | 5,719 | 6,202 | 92.2% |
| KROGER ATLANTA | 10.4 OZ CHEESECAKE CKIE BTTR 4PC (850037507474) | 135 | 2,226 | 2,499 | 89.1% |
| Area | Item | NumOfStores | Shipped | Ordered | FillRate |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KROGER CENTRAL | 10.8 OZ ICE CRM SNDWCH CHOC BLCKT (860006870454) | 117 | 4,340 | 4,340 | 100.0% |
| KROGER CENTRAL | 10.1 OZ SANDWICHES IC MCHA BRWN (850037507290) | 69 | 2,254 | 2,289 | 98.5% |
| KROGER CENTRAL | 10.4 OZ ICE CRM SNDWCH STRWBRY SC (860006870447) | 107 | 5,271 | 5,383 | 97.9% |
| KROGER CENTRAL | 10.4 OZ ICE CREAM SWCH CK MNSTR (860006870423) | 117 | 5,859 | 6,006 | 97.6% |
| KROGER CENTRAL | 10.5 OZ SANDWHICHES IC BANA PDNG (850037507283) | 117 | 9,576 | 9,835 | 97.4% |
| KROGER CENTRAL | 10.4 OZ CHEESECAKE CKIE BTTR 4PC (850037507474) | 67 | 889 | 1,085 | 81.9% |
| Area | Item | NumOfStores | Shipped | Ordered | FillRate |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KROGER CINCINNATI | 10.4 OZ ICE CREAM SWCH CK MNSTR (860006870423) | 102 | 5,964 | 6,069 | 98.3% |
| KROGER CINCINNATI | 10.8 OZ ICE CRM SNDWCH CHOC BLCKT (860006870454) | 102 | 3,836 | 3,920 | 97.9% |
| KROGER CINCINNATI | 10.4 OZ ICE CRM SNDWCH STRWBRY SC (860006870447) | 102 | 5,285 | 5,418 | 97.5% |
| KROGER CINCINNATI | 10.1 OZ SANDWICHES IC MCHA BRWN (850037507290) | 96 | 2,954 | 3,031 | 97.5% |
| KROGER CINCINNATI | 10.5 OZ SANDWHICHES IC BANA PDNG (850037507283) | 102 | 8,484 | 8,988 | 94.4% |
| KROGER CINCINNATI | 10.4 OZ CHEESECAKE CKIE BTTR 4PC (850037507474) | 94 | 1,204 | 1,358 | 88.7% |
| Area | Item | NumOfStores | Shipped | Ordered | FillRate |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KROGER COLUMBUS | 10.4 OZ ICE CREAM SWCH CK MNSTR (860006870423) | 104 | 5,124 | 5,152 | 99.5% |
| KROGER COLUMBUS | 10.1 OZ SANDWICHES IC MCHA BRWN (850037507290) | 81 | 2,513 | 2,527 | 99.4% |
| KROGER COLUMBUS | 10.8 OZ ICE CRM SNDWCH CHOC BLCKT (860006870454) | 104 | 4,102 | 4,151 | 98.8% |
| KROGER COLUMBUS | 10.4 OZ ICE CRM SNDWCH STRWBRY SC (860006870447) | 83 | 3,913 | 3,997 | 97.9% |
| KROGER COLUMBUS | 10.5 OZ SANDWHICHES IC BANA PDNG (850037507283) | 104 | 8,659 | 9,065 | 95.5% |
| KROGER COLUMBUS | 10.4 OZ CHEESECAKE CKIE BTTR 4PC (850037507474) | 81 | 924 | 1,246 | 74.2% |
| Area | Item | NumOfStores | Shipped | Ordered | FillRate |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KROGER DELTA | 10.8 OZ ICE CRM SNDWCH CHOC BLCKT (860006870454) | 76 | 3,332 | 3,332 | 100.0% |
| KROGER DELTA | 10.4 OZ ICE CRM SNDWCH STRWBRY SC (860006870447) | 76 | 5,397 | 5,439 | 99.2% |
| KROGER DELTA | 10.4 OZ ICE CREAM SWCH CK MNSTR (860006870423) | 89 | 5,446 | 5,509 | 98.9% |
| KROGER DELTA | 10.5 OZ SANDWHICHES IC BANA PDNG (850037507283) | 89 | 8,925 | 9,331 | 95.6% |
| KROGER DELTA | 10.1 OZ SANDWICHES IC MCHA BRWN (850037507290) | 58 | 2,324 | 2,485 | 93.5% |
| KROGER DELTA | 10.4 OZ CHEESECAKE CKIE BTTR 4PC (850037507474) | 59 | 875 | 1,064 | 82.2% |
| Area | Item | NumOfStores | Shipped | Ordered | FillRate |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KROGER DILLON | 10.4 OZ ICE CRM SNDWCH STRWBRY SC (860006870447) | 52 | 2,289 | 2,289 | 100.0% |
| KROGER DILLON | 10.4 OZ ICE CREAM SWCH CK MNSTR (860006870423) | 67 | 2,772 | 2,786 | 99.5% |
| KROGER DILLON | 10.1 OZ SANDWICHES IC MCHA BRWN (850037507290) | 33 | 1,141 | 1,155 | 98.8% |
| KROGER DILLON | 10.8 OZ ICE CRM SNDWCH CHOC BLCKT (860006870454) | 67 | 2,233 | 2,338 | 95.5% |
| KROGER DILLON | 10.4 OZ CHEESECAKE CKIE BTTR 4PC (850037507474) | 32 | 399 | 462 | 86.4% |
| KROGER DILLON | 10.5 OZ SANDWHICHES IC BANA PDNG (850037507283) | 35 | 2,527 | 2,989 | 84.5% |
| Area | Item | NumOfStores | Shipped | Ordered | FillRate |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KROGER LOUISVILLE | 10.8 OZ ICE CRM SNDWCH CHOC BLCKT (860006870454) | 76 | 2,737 | 2,744 | 99.7% |
| KROGER LOUISVILLE | 10.4 OZ ICE CREAM SWCH CK MNSTR (860006870423) | 82 | 3,724 | 3,801 | 98.0% |
| KROGER LOUISVILLE | 10.5 OZ SANDWHICHES IC BANA PDNG (850037507283) | 82 | 5,621 | 5,754 | 97.7% |
| KROGER LOUISVILLE | 10.4 OZ ICE CRM SNDWCH STRWBRY SC (860006870447) | 67 | 3,157 | 3,248 | 97.2% |
| KROGER LOUISVILLE | 10.1 OZ SANDWICHES IC MCHA BRWN (850037507290) | 45 | 1,218 | 1,316 | 92.6% |
| KROGER LOUISVILLE | 10.4 OZ CHEESECAKE CKIE BTTR 4PC (850037507474) | 42 | 525 | 651 | 80.6% |
| Area | Item | NumOfStores | Shipped | Ordered | FillRate |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KROGER MICHIGAN | 10.8 OZ ICE CRM SNDWCH CHOC BLCKT (860006870454) | 103 | 4,333 | 4,333 | 100.0% |
| KROGER MICHIGAN | 10.1 OZ SANDWICHES IC MCHA BRWN (850037507290) | 100 | 3,514 | 3,570 | 98.4% |
| KROGER MICHIGAN | 10.5 OZ SANDWHICHES IC BANA PDNG (850037507283) | 111 | 11,130 | 11,403 | 97.6% |
| KROGER MICHIGAN | 10.4 OZ ICE CREAM SWCH CK MNSTR (860006870423) | 111 | 6,804 | 6,986 | 97.4% |
| KROGER MICHIGAN | 10.4 OZ ICE CRM SNDWCH STRWBRY SC (860006870447) | 90 | 6,286 | 6,482 | 97.0% |
| KROGER MICHIGAN | 10.4 OZ CHEESECAKE CKIE BTTR 4PC (850037507474) | 100 | 1,141 | 1,554 | 73.4% |
| Area | Item | NumOfStores | Shipped | Ordered | FillRate |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KROGER MID-ATLANTIC | 10.8 OZ ICE CRM SNDWCH CHOC BLCKT (860006870454) | 68 | 8,022 | 8,022 | 100.0% |
| KROGER MID-ATLANTIC | 10.4 OZ ICE CRM SNDWCH STRWBRY SC (860006870447) | 37 | 5,544 | 5,607 | 98.9% |
| KROGER MID-ATLANTIC | 10.4 OZ ICE CREAM SWCH CK MNSTR (860006870423) | 88 | 13,216 | 13,391 | 98.7% |
| KROGER MID-ATLANTIC | 10.5 OZ SANDWHICHES IC BANA PDNG (850037507283) | 88 | 14,021 | 15,106 | 92.8% |
| KROGER MID-ATLANTIC | 10.1 OZ SANDWICHES IC MCHA BRWN (850037507290) | 37 | 4,186 | 4,522 | 92.6% |
| Area | Item | NumOfStores | Shipped | Ordered | FillRate |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KROGER NASHVILLE | 10.8 OZ ICE CRM SNDWCH CHOC BLCKT (860006870454) | 90 | 3,472 | 3,486 | 99.6% |
| KROGER NASHVILLE | 10.4 OZ ICE CRM SNDWCH STRWBRY SC (860006870447) | 88 | 4,851 | 4,928 | 98.4% |
| KROGER NASHVILLE | 10.4 OZ ICE CREAM SWCH CK MNSTR (860006870423) | 90 | 5,061 | 5,173 | 97.8% |
| KROGER NASHVILLE | 10.1 OZ SANDWICHES IC MCHA BRWN (850037507290) | 67 | 2,163 | 2,261 | 95.7% |
| KROGER NASHVILLE | 10.5 OZ SANDWHICHES IC BANA PDNG (850037507283) | 90 | 7,287 | 7,693 | 94.7% |
| KROGER NASHVILLE | 10.4 OZ CHEESECAKE CKIE BTTR 4PC (850037507474) | 67 | 959 | 1,085 | 88.4% |
For any item highlighted in Red, the distribution problem is solved in the warehouse, not in the store. Focus the team’s efforts on negotiating supply stability for the top volume items showing the lowest (Red) fill rates.
📈 Number of Stores Selling: Weekly Demand View (SPINS data)
Goal: Establish the highest distribution level ever achieved for every product in every market. This defines the maximum potential and our core benchmark.
This analysis is segmented by Area (use the tabs to navigate). Within each tab, products are sorted from lowest to highest store count.
⚠️ Note on Store Count Discrepancy: The counts shown here are based on SPINS sales data (stores that recorded a sale). They may be lower than the Distributor Fill Rate Tables above (stores that ordered the item). This difference highlights an in-store execution gap that requires investigation.
The number you see at the end of each bar is the Store Ceiling. Any store-week value in our weekly performance reports that is below this number represents a verifiable distribution gap.
If current weekly distribution is below the Ceiling: It means the gap is recoverable. The infrastructure (authorization, planogram space, distributor access) has existed and worked in the past.
Strategic Focus: Use this chart to quickly identify high-potential products that are currently underperforming. A product with a high Store Ceiling but a consistently low current distribution (as seen in the Lollipop Charts) represents the most significant immediate opportunity for recovery.
📉 Total Distribution Gap: Quantifying the Missed Opportunity (SPINS data)
Goal: Provide the full, accumulated financial impact of distribution failures across the entire reporting period. This chart shows the total sales opportunity lost for every product in every market.
The Total Distribution Gap is a singular metric that represents the sum of all weekly store count deficits (Max Stores - Actual Stores) over the entire measured period.
Higher values indicate products that had the most unrealized distribution potential across the Kroger locations.
🎯 Individual Product Distribution Gap Analysis (SPINS data)
These individual tabs show the weekly distribution gap. The gold segment indicates the number of stores that could have sold the product (maximum number of stores within time period) but did not (actual sales). This represents lost distribution opportunity. This visual highlights where current performance falls short of the Maximum Store Ceiling established in the previous visual.
This analysis is organized by Geography (use the tabs to navigate) and features only the single product in that market with the largest Total Distribution Gap.
Most Critical Item: Chmp Ckie Mnstr Snwch 2.6oz (4pk) (Total Gap: 1143 Store-Weeks)
Most Critical Item: Chmp Ckie Mnstr Snwch 2.6oz (4pk) (Total Gap: 1026 Store-Weeks)
Most Critical Item: Chocolate Blackout Iccrm Sandwiches 2.7oz (4pk) (Total Gap: 1019 Store-Weeks)
Most Critical Item: Chocolate Blackout Iccrm Sandwiches 2.7oz (4pk) (Total Gap: 973 Store-Weeks)
Most Critical Item: Strwbry Short Cake Ice Cream Sandwich 2.6oz (4pk) (Total Gap: 940 Store-Weeks)
Most Critical Item: Ice Cream Sandwiches Mocha Brownie Chomp Size 2.5 Oz (4pk) (Total Gap: 904 Store-Weeks)
Most Critical Item: Chmp Ckie Mnstr Snwch 2.6oz (4pk) (Total Gap: 826 Store-Weeks)
Most Critical Item: Chmp Ckie Mnstr Snwch 2.6oz (4pk) (Total Gap: 702 Store-Weeks)
Most Critical Item: Ice Cream Sandwich Banana Pudding 2.6 Oz (4pk) (Total Gap: 690 Store-Weeks)
Most Critical Item: Chmp Ckie Mnstr Snwch 2.6oz (4pk) (Total Gap: 583 Store-Weeks)
🔍 Distribution Gap Detailed View (SPINS data)
Goal: Provide the raw, detailed, and filterable data backing all distribution visuals. This table is the investigative tool for validation.
The Distribution Gap column is numerical representation of the length of the gold lines above. Use the Search Bar to pull up the critical items identified by the Lollipop Charts.The table will provide the information needed drill down into a single distribution failure.
🚀 Conclusion: Driving Distribution Recovery—The Strategic Mandate
The path to maximizing distribution hinges on a systematic, data-driven approach built upon five key visuals. Our strategic mandate is to systematically resolve the highest-impact gaps by first confirming the achievable target (the Store Ceiling) and then diagnosing the root cause.
Recovery requires a prioritized, two-step diagnostic process: Prioritization & Confirmation: Target the items with the largest loss in Total Distribution Gap (Store-Weeks). Use the Area Fill Rate Bar Chart for a high-level overview of market supply health, but validate the specific product failure by checking the detailed Product Fill Rate Tables for any item flagged Red (\(\mathbf{< 95\%}\)). If the cause is supply, action is immediately directed toward distributor coordination.
In-Depth Diagnosis & Validation: If the fill rate is healthy, the issue is operational. Use the Weekly Lollipop Chart to diagnose if the pattern is Chronic (structural issue) or Acute (intermittent issue). Finally, employ the Detailed Distribution Gap Data Table—utilizing its scroll and search functions—to pinpoint the exact weeks and numerical values of failure, providing the necessary evidence to link the gap to a specific in-store event or required planogram fix.
By following this sequence, we ensure recovery efforts are not wasted on guesswork, allowing us to restore distribution to the proven Store Ceiling and capture maximum sales potential efficiently.